By MIKE HERNDON, columnist
With the Titans just past the midway point of the 2025 season, I thought it would be a good time to check in on Cam Ward’s development, which is unquestionably the single most important aspect of the remaining eight games on the schedule.
Obviously, with the team sitting at 1-8 and Ward – and the Titans offense in general – ranking near the bottom of nearly every statistical category, it’s hard to say that things are going great for the rookie quarterback. That said, there is obviously plenty of context to consider with the firing of a coach midway through the season, an injury to Ward’s only proven pass catcher, and yet another shaky performance from the offensive line in front of him.
With that in mind, I want to approach this check-in from two angles. First, where is the trendline pointing with Ward in general? Are things getting better or worse and what are realistic expectations for what things may look like over the next eight games?
The other view of Ward I will explore is how he compares to other highly drafted quarterbacks from the last 20 years in their rookie seasons.
But let’s start with some trendspotting. I think it makes sense to break the first half of the season into three parts. Part one being the first three games with Brian Callahan as head coach and offensive play caller. Part two is the next three with Callahan as head coach and Bo Hardegree as play caller. And then part three being the last three with Mike McCoy as head coach and Hardegree calling plays.
I’m not breaking these into these sections with the intention of assigning blame or credit to these coaches. It just so happens that the easiest way to divide nine into even chunks just so happens to fall exactly at the splits where the coaching changes were made.
Here is a breakdown of some key measurables over those three windows of time:
|
Statistic |
Week 1 – 3 |
Week 4 – 6 |
Week 7 – 9 |
|
Completion % |
54.5 (32nd) |
55.3 (34th) |
63.4 (21st) |
|
Yards Per Game |
169 (27th) |
198 (25th) |
220 (20th) |
|
Passing TDs |
2 (T-28th) |
1 (33rd) |
2 (T-22nd) |
|
Interceptions |
1 (T-17th) |
3 (T-4th) |
2 (T-9th) |
|
Passer Rating |
71.4 (27th) |
63.4 (33rd) |
82.7 (22nd) |
|
Yards Per Attempt |
5.1 (31st) |
5.8 (32nd) |
7.1 (15th) |
|
Sacks Taken |
15 (1st) |
10 (4th) |
13 (2nd) |
|
Sack % |
13.2 (T-3rd) |
8.85 (7th) |
12.26 (4th) |
|
Big Time Throws |
2 (T-20th) |
4 (T-16th) |
5 (T-13th) |
|
BTT % |
1.9 (23rd) |
2.9 (20th) |
3.9 (T-15th) |
|
Turnover Worthy Plays |
2 (T-19th) |
3 (T-15th) |
6 (T-6th) |
|
TWP % |
1.6 (25th) |
1.9 (T-20th) |
4.0 (8th) |
|
Average Time to Throw |
3.03 (6th longest) |
2.88 (9th) |
2.98 (5th) |
|
EPA/play |
-0.236 (36th) |
-0.197 (37th) |
-0.180 (34th) |
|
CPOE |
-5.7 (34th) |
-7.8 (35th) |
-3.3 (27th) |
|
ADOT |
8.0 (T-14th deepest) |
9.0 (T-7th) |
8.2 (T-17th) |
The good news is that you can see pretty clear progression in a lot of key areas, particularly over the last three weeks. Despite my well-documented criticisms of his coaching over the past year and a half, I don’t necessarily see these numbers as an obvious indicator that Callahan was the problem early on. Natural progression as Ward gains experience was to be expected, regardless of who is coaching or calling plays.
Overall, Ward has done a pretty good job of not putting the ball in harm’s way for a rookie, at least through the air. His interception rate of 2.0 percent is below league average and his turnover-worthy play rate of 2.6 percent as charted by PFF is below league average as well.
The league-leading five lost fumbles is something that must be fixed, but he’s also gotten a little unfortunate that teammates have recovered just two of his seven fumbles on the season. Daniel Jones has fumbled eight times this year, but the Colts have recovered five of them, while both Baker Mayfield and Tua Tagovailoa have fumbled six times and gotten bailed out by teammates on five of them.
Besides the fumbles, another other area that I’d like to see growth in over the final eight games would include keeping the completion rate in the mid-60s or above. As PK explored this week, improvement in some of the fundamental issues that are contributing to some of the erratic accuracy this season will need to be addressed in the offseason, but physical accuracy is just one element of completion percentage.
Ward could also improve his completion rate by making sure the ball is going where it should within the timing of the offense. He could also continue to work on finding his check-downs more often when defenses take away his primary options. The Titans' running backs are 28th in the league in total targets this season.
Both of those things should improve as Ward continues to better understand the Titans offensive scheme, personnel, and how NFL defenses are trying to attack him.
I’m not sure Ward will ever be a Tagovailoa- or Aaron Rodgers-style quick strike artist, but trimming a tenth or two of a second off his average time to throw would also be helpful, especially for a struggling offensive line. That should help reduce a sack rate that is entirely too high at 11.4 percent through nine games.
Since 2016, there have been 18 quarterbacks selected in the top five picks in the draft.
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz
Mitchell Trubisky
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Kyler Murray
Joe Burrow
Tua Tagovailoa
Trevor Lawrence
Zach Wilson
Trey Lance
Bryce Young
C.J. Stroud
Anthony Richardson
Caleb Williams
Jayden Daniels
Drake Maye
Cam Ward
Those 18 are comprised of 12 current NFL starters and six backups. Lance, Goff, and Richardson did not play nine games during their rookie seasons, so they’re excluded from the total counting stats in the lists below. Here is where Ward stacks up in a few key stats compared to those 18 quarterbacks over their first nine starts in the NFL.
Passing Yards
1. Stroud 2,626
2. Burrow 2,485
3. Mayfield 2,242
4. Murray 2,229
5. Wentz 2,121
6. Lawrence 1,983
7. Daniels 1,945
8. Darnold 1,934
9. Williams 1,785
10. Ward 1,760
11. Wilson 1,741
12. Maye 1,696
13. Young 1,683
14. Trubisky 1,508
15. Tagovailoa 1,453
Completion Rate
1. Daniels 71.5
2. Maye 67.2
3. Burrow 65.2
4. Tagovailoa 65.1
5. Wentz 65.0
6. Murray 64.2
7. Mayfield 62.7
8. Young 62.1
9. Stroud 61.6
10. Williams 60.5
11. Richardson 59.5
12. Trubisky 58.2
13. Lawrence 58.0
14. Ward 57.6
15. Wilson 56.1
16. Darnold 55.0
17. Goff 54.6
Passer Rating
1. Daniels 106.7
2. Stroud 101.0
3. Tagovailoa 93.2
4. Mayfield 93.2
5. Burrow 89.8
6. Murray 89.2
7. Wentz 87.6
8. Richardson 87.3
9. Maye 87.0
10. Williams 81.0
11. Trubisky 80.0
12. Young 74.7
13. Lawrence 72.1
14. Ward 72.1
15. Darnold 68.3
16. Wilson 65.3
17. Goff 63.8
Interception Rate
1. Stroud 0.6
2. Tagovailoa 0.9
3. Daniels 0.9
4. Murray 1.3
5. Richardson 1.3
6. Burrow 1.4
7. Wentz 1.6
8. Williams 1.7
9. Trubisky 1.8
10. Ward 2.0
11. Mayfield 2.3
12. Young 2.5
13. Lawrence 2.7
14. Maye 3.1
15. Goff 3.4
16. Wilson 3.9
17. Darnold 4.8
Big Time Throw Rate
1. Mayfield 7.7
2. Stroud 4.4
3. Murray 4.0
4. Williams 3.9
5. Trubisky 3.9
6. Darnold 3.7
7. Maye 3.7
8. Burrow 3.6
9. Daniels 3.5
10. Lawrence 3.4
11. Richardson 3.3
12. Ward 3.2
13. Young 3.2
14. Wentz 2.6
15. Wilson 2.5
16. Tagovailoa 2.3
17. Goff 1.4
Turnover Worthy Play Rate
1. Daniels 1.5
2. Williams 2.6
3. Ward 2.7
4. Trubisky 2.7
5. Murray 2.7
6. Stroud 2.8
7. Mayfield 3.1
8. Burrow 3.2
9. Young 3.3
10. Richardson 3.7
11. Lawrence 3.7
12. Tagovailoa 3.7
13. Maye 3.7
14. Wilson 3.8
15. Wentz 3.9
16. Darnold 4.4
17. Goff 4.7
Ward certainly doesn’t shine like rookie phenoms Stroud and Daniels in any of these statistical categories. However, he’s also got better numbers than current MVP candidates Sam Darnold and Drake Maye had over their first nine games of their careers.
To me, all this says is that judging a rookie quarterback solely based on stats is a fool’s errand. We’ve seen players have elite rookie seasons and then backslide in Year Two, like Mayfield, Stroud, and Daniels. Mayfield later bounced back in Tampa, of course, and the jury is still out on what Stroud and Daniels will be long-term.
We’ve seen truly dreadful rookie performances like Goff and Darnold turn into high-quality NFL starters.
And we’ve seen shaky rookie seasons turn into MVP candidates in Year Two like Wentz and Maye.
And of course, some bad rookies stayed bad, some good rookies stayed good, and some average rookies stayed average.
Interestingly, half of the 18 quarterbacks on this list had their head coach fired either during or after their rookie campaign, so Ward will be far from alone in dealing with that transition heading into year two.
Goff (Jeff Fisher)
Trubisky (John Fox)
Mayfield (Hue Jackson)
Darnold (Todd Bowles)
Lawrence (Urban Meyer)
Young (Frank Reich)
Williams (Matt Eberflus)
Maye (Jarod Mayo)
Ward (Brian Callahan)
It's also worth noting that seven of the previous eight teams that fired a head coach after taking a top-five quarterback the year before replaced their previous head coach with a coach from the offensive side of the ball with varying degrees of success:
Goff (Sean McVay)
Trubisky (Matt Nagy)
Mayfield (Freddie Kitchens)
Darnold (Adam Gase)
Lawrence (Doug Pederson)
Young (Dave Canales)
Williams (Ben Johnson)
The sole exception, of course, is our old friend Mike Vrabel pairing with Drake Maye in New England.
Who the Titans select in the offseason, the work Ward puts in on his footwork and fundamentals, and who Mike Borgonzi is able to surround his quarterback with in free agency and the draft will have a big impact on which category Ward finds himself in moving forward, but it would still be good to see trendlines continue to head in a positive direction over the next eight games.
