NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- It makes far more sense to look at strength of schedule based on projected Vegas win totals than it does on last season’s records. The win totals factor in changed coaches, free agency movement, the draft and injuries, while 2025 records don’t account for any of that.
But I say over and over, the No. 1 thing that makes the NFL so popular is its unpredictability. The yearly alterations of the playoff field, divisional worst-to-firsts, the impact of the wrong injury or the right breakout undo all of our best predictions.
Warren Sharp tracks the Vegas win total projections and has the Titans with the 13th easiest strength of schedule, with the Colts at ninth, the Jaguars at 15th, and the Texans at 25th. Meanwhile, based on winning percentage from last year, the Titans have the eighth-easiest schedule, facing teams that were a collective .476 in 2025.
Last year, the Titans headed into a slate that featured opponents who had a combined .450 winning percentage from 2024. That counted as the fourth-easiest schedule. Sharp’s Vegas calculations had the Titans at eighth-easiest.
Both forecasts were way off. That’s the NFL.
Those opponents wound up with a winning percentage of .574 in 2025, the toughest in the league, and .124 over what their combined winning percentages had been a year earlier. (The Titans helped inflate that figure with their 3-14 record.)
Heading into 2026, by last season’s strength of schedule, the Titans are 25th (.476) as compared to Sharp’s 18th.
While Vegas-based projections are far more logical than relying on last year’s standings, they’re still projections. The NFL is always going to have something to say about that.